A services business with a software-shaped upside.
Modeled like a services business.
A monthly cohort model over five years: paid tests convert to annual plans, logos churn, Core customers upgrade, delivery is costed per entity-drill, and every hire waits for a gate. Every number on this page is a Projection. No customers, carriers or revenue exist today.
Four futures, side by side.
Toggle series on and off. Hover for values. Bear and mid-case are shown run to Year 5 for comparison; in practice the kill gates would stop them.
Revenue Projection
EBITDA Projection
Annual-plan customers, end of year Projection
Cumulative founder cash, first 24 months Projection
Where the revenue comes from.
Paid tests are the entry; annual plans are the business. Recurring revenue is about 71% of Year 5, which matters for the multiple: advisers note firms below ~50% recurring get repriced toward project-services multiples (CT Acquisitions).
Churn and conversion move everything.
Base-case volumes. Click a cell. Each cell shows Year-5 EBITDA and EV at 7x normalized EBITDA.
Year 3, base case, direct vs. channel.
The go-to-market reviewer expects $25k to $35k blended CAC. If that is right, payback is about 15 to 18 months and LTV:CAC about 3 to 4x: still viable, materially worse. The first five paid tests will tell us which number is closer.
Where the labor really is.
Client coordination, side-effect cleanup and liability, not the attack itself. Operator at $150/h, CS at $90/h (assumptions).
| Tier | Operator h | CS h | Tech | Delivery cost | % of ACV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core (1 entity) | 26 | 11 | $900 | $5.8k | 24% |
| Growth (4 entities) | 62 | 24 | $2.7k | $14.1k | 31% |
| Enterprise (~10, video) | 162 | 49 | $8.3k | $37.0k | 41% |
| Baseline Wire Test | 13 | 4 | $400 | $2.7k | 28% |
No gate, no hire.
If the business underperforms, the hire does not happen. Year-5 base: 5 W-2 people including the founder, plus ~1.3 FTE of contractor operator hours.
| Role | Gate | Loaded cost |
|---|
The inputs, in one place.
From model.json (v2, revised after an internal red-team review). Change one of these and every page on this site moves with it.
| Assumption | Base value | Why |
|---|